10 August 2018 Revised 16 October 2018 Accepted 23 October 2018 DOI 101111gcb14506 WILEY Global Change PRIMARY RESEARCH ARTICLE The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities David J Eldridge 23 I Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo Centre for Ecosystem Science School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales SydneyNew South Wales Australia Departamento de Biología y Geología ísica y Química Inorgánica Escuela uperior de Ciencias Experimentales y ecnología Universidad Rey Juan Carlos stoles Spain operative Institute for Research in ironmental Sciences University of rado Boulder Colorado Abstract Predicting the distribution of biocrust species mosses lic ated with surface soils is difficult but climatic legacies changes in climate hens and liverwor last 20 k years can improve our prediction of the distribution of biocrus To provide empirical support for this hypothesis we used a combination c analyses and structural equation modelling to identify the role of climatic predicting the distribution of ecological clusters formed by species lichens and liverworts using data from 282 large sites distributed across km2 of eastern Australia Two ecological clusters contained 87% of the lichen and liverwort species Both clusters contained lichen moss and live cies but were dominated by different families Sites where the air t increased the most over 20k years positive temperature legacies were with reductions in the relative abundance of species from the lichen and Teloschistaceae and moss Bryaceae families Cluster A spec spondence J Eldridge Centre for Ecosystem e School of Biological Earth and mental Sciences University of New Wales Sydney NSW Australia eldridge@unsweduau groundstorey plant cover and lower soil pH Sites where precipitation over the past 20k years positive precipitation legacy were ass increases in the relative abundance of lichen Cladoniaceae Leci Meme

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