The Stock market, as well as the overall economy, moves between a boom and bust cycle - it basically moves between growth and value investing - it is that simple!
After a recession, when the whole stock market cycle, the business cycle and the credit cycle have gone bust: interest rates are low to super low, the Fed is trying to stimulate the economy - Investors start to look at Growth Stocks/ Growth-Oriented Mutual Funds (a growth stock is one that generally averages about 20% growth per year along with the technology sectors like semiconductors and Biotech/Pharmaceuticals)….. Small Cap stocks/Mutual Funds also take off - money is cheap to borrow to fund R&D, marketing expenses, etc.
But Value stocks/Mutual Funds also start to rise: A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL BOATS - was the 90′s moniker!
Hence, the market starts to take off: as markets start to heat up and the economy starts to OVERHEAT - the Fed starts to raise interests to COOL the market down - like in November 1999 - the Fed had raised the Federal Funds rate way up to a whopping 6.5% to try and cool down the economy and to put a damper on the Dot.com Boom - fueled stock market!
Those who forget history do not recall that the yield curve inverted in 1998; the Federal Funds rate was too high in 1999 (FYI side note: the “average” technology mutual fund in 1999 was up 100%!!!!!!!!!!!! by years’ end) Guess what? The whole market crashed in April 2000!
So from that time to about mid-June 2000 - the market went nowhere! Value investing and investing in Bonds (like Intermediate and Long-term Treasury Bonds (backed by the full faith of the US government) went up from June 2000 to December 2000 (Berkshire Hathaway A shares went up over 85% that year within 6 months!). Warren Buffet? Look him up! Treasuries also did extremely well - like one “Talking Head” has been quoted as saying - “There is always a Bull Market somewhere”……
And the whole process starts over again from a boom to bust cycle, about every 10 years or so……the Real Estate Market moves in a boom to bust cycle about every 7 years….
MY OPINION – stay the course with Value-oriented Investing: it works in both up and down markets! A mix of Value Mutual Funds and Treasury Bond Mutual Funds weather ALL storms - OVER THE LONG HAUL - and yes, expect a few hiccups along the way too LOL!)….Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) investing will work too - but, I like Mutual Funds - the minimums are $3,000.00 however (at least) to start investing in a SINGLE fund. DO YOUR RESEARCH/DUE DILIGENCE ON THE WEB and also on YOU TUBE!
Guys - the overall stock market climbs in a stair-step fashion: up, then sideways/down and then up again! Invest for the long term (like 30-50+ years)….YOU WILL BE A WINNER! Be it an investment account or a retirement account or BOTH: like a personal investment account and a ROTH IRA or an employer-sponsored 401k Plan along with a personal investment account.
Dollar-Cost Average your contributions to personal investment/ROTH accounts; that is invest the same $ amount each and every month - regardless, whether the market is up or down! Ignore the noise! Ignore the Talking Heads”.
CURRENT MARKET : MY OPINION
Me personally, I am accumulating cash and letting my current investment portfolio just ride along with this geo-politically fueled/baseless rate cut economic environment …Impeachment talks, China Trade War escalation, Iran concerns, Saudi Arabia bombings, Japan-South Korea tensions as well as renewed North Korea tension over prior failed talks, the American Farmers plight due to the trade war, negative return/yield rates on European Bonds, Brexit concerns, a dollar that is too strong, etc.
When American companies start to cut back, lay people off, these people can not keep spending to keep GDP/the economy growing, then these people can not pay their mortgages/auto loans/credit cards….Will it be “somewhat” similar to 2008… all over again?
I have no professional opinion nor do I have a crystal ball – Maybe the FED will engineer a “SOFT” Landing”…..this time: they never did in the past when “Bubbles” Greenspan or “Helicopter Ben” Bernake were FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMEN.
THOSE THAT FORGET HISTORY ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT IT….
found @ 36 likes ON 2019-10-23 20:45:19 BY ME.ME